Gold Weekly Forecast Gold holds near $4,250 as traders brace for major US data and rising Fed rate-cut expectations. Discover key levels, market drivers, and what to expect this week.
Introduction
Gold starts the new week holding firm near $4,250, its highest level in six weeks, supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week. With traders pricing in an 87% probability of a December rate cut, the US Dollar remains under pressure, keeping the bullish trend for gold intact.
This Gold weekly forecast focuses on what truly matters data, the Fed, and the key levels that will decide whether gold breaks higher or returns into consolidation.
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The sharp drop in the US Dollar last week gave gold the boost it needed. The Dollar Index slipped to its lowest level in months after several Fed officials signaled that the central bank is ready to support the economy if conditions weaken further.
At the same time, the bond market continues to price in easier monetary policy. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped toward 4%, reducing the appeal of interest-bearing assets and improving demand for gold.
Traders now see a December rate cut as the base case. This shift in expectations is the main force driving gold toward the $4,300 zone.
This Week’s US Data Will Set the Tone
After weeks of delayed reports due to the government shutdown, several high-impact indicators return:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday) – Expected at 48.6
- ADP Employment (Wednesday) – Labor market momentum check
- ISM Services PMI (Wednesday) – Key gauge for economic health
- Jobless Claims (Thursday)
- Core PCE Inflation (Friday) – The Fed’s preferred inflation measure
A run of weak numbers will strengthen the case for a rate cut and could push gold through the $4,250–$4,275 resistance area.
But if the data surprises to the upside, the dollar may bounce, triggering a short-term pullback in gold.
Technical Outlook Bulls Still in Control
Gold’s daily chart remains strongly bullish:
- Price trades above the 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs
- The RSI near 66 shows healthy momentum but not overbought
- The 61.8% Fib level at $4,191 is holding as strong support
- Immediate resistance sits at $4,250–$4,275
- A breakout targets $4,300, then $4,378–$4,381 (record high)
If gold holds above $4,191, the bullish trend stays intact.
A daily close above $4,250 would be a major technical victory for buyers.
Short-Term Levels to Watch
Intraday traders should focus on the two demand zones:
- $4,210–$4,204 – First buy zone
- $4,179–$4,168 – Deeper pullback buy zone
As long as M15 and H4 structure remains bullish, dips into these zones should attract buyers.
Only a break below $4,050 would signal a deeper correction toward $3,883.
Weekly Forecast: What to Expect
Bullish Scenario (Most Likely)
If data stays soft and rate-cut expectations remain strong:
- Gold breaks $4,250
- Moves toward $4,275
- Tests $4,300
- High-end target: $4,378–$4,381
Momentum favors this path.
Neutral Scenario
If data is mixed:
- Gold stays inside $4,150–$4,250
- Consolidation continues until the Fed meeting
Bearish Scenario (Low Probability)
If US data beats expectations sharply:
- Gold drops below $4,150
- Tests $4,095
- Deeper correction targets $4,050
This requires a meaningful upside surprise in US data.
Final Outlook
Gold enters the week with strong bullish momentum, supported by a weak dollar, falling yields, and surging expectations for a December Fed rate cut. The key test is a daily close above $4,250. If buyers manage that, the path toward $4,300 and the all-time high becomes wide open.
Until the Fed meeting, the bias remains bullish on dips, with the market more likely to reward patient buyers than early sellers.
Why is gold likely to extend higher before any major pullback
Because the weekly chart still has untouched external buy-side liquidity above 4420–4480. According to ICT’s HTF liquidity model, price must take out these highs before any meaningful reversal or rebalancing occurs. The algo doesn’t reverse early — it completes the liquidity objective first.
What key levels will trigger a weekly bearish reversal in gold
A reversal only becomes probable after price sweeps the 4420–4480 weekly liquidity zone and then shows clear weekly bearish displacement. This includes a weekly rejection wick into the liquidity zone followed by a weekly candle breaking previous weekly lows. Without these conditions, any dip is noise, not reversal.
What is the downside target after gold completes the upside liquidity sweep
The first downside objective is 4050–4120, where internal liquidity zones and weekly inefficiencies exist. A deeper correction toward 3750–3900 becomes likely once price rebalances the weekly FVGs and mitigates the higher-timeframe order block left behind.
Is this a good place to short gold on the weekly timeframe
No — not yet. Shorting before the 4420–4480 external liquidity sweep is premature and goes against the institutional model. Smart Money will not reverse from a clean high-liquidity target sitting directly above current price. The correct shorting zone begins only after the sweep and clear displacement.
What invalidates the bullish weekly forecast for gold
The forecast fails only if gold breaks below 4050 before completing the liquidity sweep above 4420–4480. This would signal that the algorithm abandoned the buy-side target and shifted prematurely into a deeper weekly rebalancing cycle — a lower-probability but possible scenario.
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