Date: November 4, 2025
Author: Naveed Anjum – Market Analyst, GoldFxPro
UBS says gold’s pullback is only temporary, with prices set to rise toward $4,200 amid strong central bank demand and a $7B Coeur–New Gold merger fueling safe-haven confidence.
Introduction
Gold continues to hold its ground near $4,000 per ounce after a healthy pullback, with UBS analysts calling the correction technical and temporary.The bank expects gold to resume its uptrend toward $4,200, and possibly reach $4,700 if global risks deepen. At the same time, the $7 billion Coeur
MiningNew Gold merger highlights how miners are positioning for a new era of safe-haven demand signaling that the bull market in gold is far from over.
1.UBS Sees the Dip as a Buying Opportunity
UBS says the latest correction in gold prices isn’t a warning sign but a pause in a much larger trend. In a note to clients, the Swiss banking giant wrote, Outside technical factors, we see no fundamental reason for the sell-off ,
According to UBS, central bank buying, investor demand, and rising geopolitical risks all remain intact. The World Gold Council’s Q3 report confirmed accelerating purchases from both central banks and individual investors.
UBS expects central banks to buy around 900–950 metric tons of gold this year one of the strongest years since 2011 while ETF inflows and bar-and-coin demand remain robust.
“We like to buy the dip in gold,” UBS added, recommending investors hold a mid-single-digit allocation to the precious metal as part of a diversified portfolio.
The bank’s strategist, Sagar Khandelwal, sees real U.S. interest rates potentially turning negative as the Federal Reserve cuts rates amid sticky inflation. That combination could weaken the dollar and fuel a sharp rally in gold toward $4,700 by early 2026. (Source: Kitco News)
2.Safe-Haven Mergers Define 2025 Gold Sector Boom
The gold industry is seeing a wave of consolidation driven by investors’ appetite for safety. The most recent example is Coeur Mining’s $7 billion all-stock acquisition of New Gold Inc., creating one of North America’s largest precious metal producers.
The deal represents the largest gold-sector merger of 2025 and reflects a clear shift toward scale, efficiency, and jurisdictional safety. With gold trading above $4,000, mining companies are racing to strengthen their balance sheets and expand within politically stable regions like Canada and the U.S.
Under the agreement, New Gold shareholders will receive 0.4959 Coeur shares for each NGD share a 16% premium with Coeur shareholders holding 62% of the merged entity. The combined company will operate seven mines across North America and is expected to generate $3 billion in EBITDA and $2 billion in free cash flow by 2026.
This merger creates an unrivaled North American mining powerhouse at the right time, said Coeur CEO Mitchell Krebs, highlighting the industry’s shift toward low-risk jurisdictions.
This “safe-haven” M&A rush is part of a broader pattern. Earlier this year, Gold Fields bought Gold Road Resources in Australia, and Fresnillo expanded into Canada both moves underscoring a preference for regions with stable governance and strong investor protection. (Source: Kitco News)
3.Market Sentiment: Bulls Stay in Control Despite Volatility
Despite a short-term correction, sentiment across the gold market remains broadly positive. Many traders view dips toward $3,950–$3,980 as opportunities to reload positions.
The Fed’s cautious stance, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, and weaker manufacturing data (with ISM PMI at 48.7) have added uncertainty, pushing investors back toward safe assets. UBS and other analysts believe gold’s underallocation across institutional portfolios leaves plenty of room for new buying.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index continues to test the 100 level, showing strength, but gold’s resilience above $4,000 demonstrates its growing independence from short-term dollar moves.
4.Technical Overview: Key Levels to Watch
Gold has stabilized after last week’s volatility, trading around $4,010–$4,030. The technical picture suggests consolidation before the next major move.
- Support Levels: $3,971 – $3,950 – $3,800
- Resistance Levels: $4,043 – $4,059 – $4,100
- Bias: Bullish above $3,950; Neutral below $3,900
The near-term focus remains on whether bulls can break above $4,100 a move that could open the path toward UBS’s $4,200 target. A sustained close above that resistance would likely signal a return to the broader uptrend.
Silver, meanwhile, trades around $48 per ounce with resistance at $49.20 and support near $47.00, showing a similar stabilization pattern after recent highs.
5.What Traders Should Watch Next
All eyes are on the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls and upcoming Fed commentary for clues on the December policy meeting. A weaker jobs report could reinforce expectations for deeper rate cuts, pressuring the dollar and lifting gold.
Traders should also monitor China’s retail gold policy changes, as the end of a long-standing tax exemption could temporarily weigh on jewelry demand but boost investment flows as consumers seek alternative hedges.
If global macro data softens further or geopolitical tensions rise, gold could test $4,200 within weeks and potentially target $4,500–$4,700 by early 2026, as UBS projects.
6.My Personal Thoughts
This market feels healthy. The pullback wasn’t panic selling it was a breather. Every correction toward $3,950 finds strong buyers, proving that gold’s core trend is intact. If you’re patient and selective, this is a market where buying fear still pays off.
I believe $4,200 is achievable before year-end if inflation expectations soften and the dollar cools off. But even if it takes time, the direction remains clear gold’s bull run isn’t done yet.
What does the Coeur–New Gold merger mean for investors
It signals growing consolidation and a focus on safe, stable jurisdictions, showing confidence in long-term gold prices above $4,000.
Is gold’s correction over
Analysts say yes the recent pullback was technical, not fundamental, and support near $3,950 has held firmly.
What are key resistance and support levels for gold
Resistance is at $4,043–$4,100; support lies around $3,950–$3,800. A break above $4,100 could accelerate momentum toward $4,200.
What could push gold to $4,700 next year
UBS projects that deeper Fed rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, and geopolitical risks could drive gold toward $4,700 by Q1 2026.
What does the Coeur–New Gold merger mean for investors
It signals growing consolidation and a focus on safe, stable jurisdictions, showing confidence in long-term gold prices above $4,000.
