Date: 6 November 2025
Author: Naveed Anjum – Market Analyst GoldFxPro
Gold extends gains above $4,000 as the US dollar weakens and safe-haven demand returns. Traders eye key resistance near $4,045 and support at $3,970.
Gold Holds Above $4,000 Amid Softer Dollar and Lingering Uncertainty
Gold prices extended their rebound above the $4,000 mark on Thursday, gaining strength from a weaker US Dollar and renewed safe-haven demand. Traders are cautiously optimistic as geopolitical tensions and the prolonged US government shutdown weigh on the global outlook. The move reflects a temporary pause in the dollar’s rally, giving gold room to stabilize after last week’s correction.
(Source: Reuters, Bloomberg)
US Government Shutdown Fuels Economic Concerns
The ongoing US government shutdown has now become the longest in American history, stretching into its sixth week. Economists warn that each passing day risks deeper economic damage, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a 1–2% GDP loss in Q4. Investors are shifting focus toward gold as uncertainty clouds the near-term growth outlook.
(Source: FXStreet, MarketWatch)
Fed’s Hawkish Tone Limits Gold’s Upside Potential
Although gold has benefited from dollar weakness, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone continues to cap strong rallies. Recent comments from Chair Jerome Powell indicate that another rate cut in December is not guaranteed, suggesting the Fed might pause after back-to-back reductions. This stance supports the dollar’s resilience, reducing gold’s appeal for speculative buyers.
(Source: Investing.com, Bloomberg)
Technical Outlook: Gold Faces Resistance Near $4,025–$4,045
Technically, gold is trading near the $3,990–$3,995 zone, which aligns with the 200-hour SMA and a short-term descending trendline. A breakout above this confluence could spark momentum toward $4,025–$4,045, while failure to clear it may lead to renewed pressure toward $3,940–$3,935. Traders are closely watching $3,970 as a key intraday support zone.
(Source: TradingView, FXEmpire)
Traders Await Fed Speeches for Policy Clues
Market participants are holding back from large directional bets as they await speeches from FOMC members later today. These remarks could clarify whether policymakers lean toward another cut or prefer to pause. The tone of these comments will likely shape the next short-term move in both the dollar and gold. (Source: DailyFX, Forexfactory)
China’s Tariff Suspension Adds Support to Risk Sentiment
Beijing’s decision to extend its suspension of tariffs on US goods for another year has slightly improved global market sentiment. While this has reduced some safe-haven inflows into gold, traders remain cautious amid broader geopolitical uncertainty and economic slowdown risks.
(Source: Reuters, FXLeaders)
Gold Technical Range for the Day: $3,886–$4,046
Gold continues to trade within a tight range between $3,886 and $4,046. A sustained break above $4,046 would open the door toward $4,145, while a drop below $3,886 could push prices toward $3,840 or even $3,800. RSI near 56 indicates neutral momentum, suggesting consolidation before the next breakout.
Broader Outlook: Gold Remains Bullish Above $3,850
The medium-term trend remains bullish as long as gold holds above $3,850 a level that has repeatedly acted as a launchpad for new rallies. A daily close above $4,050 could confirm the next bullish wave targeting $4,250–$4,380, while a breakdown below $3,850 could trigger a deeper pullback toward $3,600.
(Source: TradingView)
Sentiment Shift Investors Return to Risk Assets
Despite gold’s recent recovery, appetite for riskier assets like equities and cryptocurrencies has improved, limiting strong safe-haven inflows. Bitcoin’s rebound and rising US Treasury yields have also diverted short-term flows away from gold. (Source: Bloomberg, CoinDesk)
Gold Price Forecast – XAUUSD Battles $4,010 Resistance as Buyers Test the Breakout Zone
November 6, 2025 – GoldFXPro Daily Forecast
Quick Picture (What I See)
Gold is trading around $4,012, holding just above the short-term trendline resistance that had capped prices for the last two weeks. The breakout attempt is visible, but momentum remains cautious it feels like gold is trying to stretch its legs after being stuck in a narrow range.
On the 1-hour chart, the structure has shifted from a descending channel into a tightening coil. Bulls are attempting to reclaim higher ground after defending the $3,885–$3,900 support zone, which previously acted as a strong accumulation base. The current price action suggests a retest of $4,040–$4,060 may come next, but unless we see a clean hourly close above this zone, bears may still push back.
The broader pattern still carries lower highs, but the rising lows since October 29 show that the market is stabilizing. Traders should note the ongoing battle between short-term bullish recovery and medium-term downward bias gold is at a technical crossroads.
Trade Ideas
Setup A Momentum Long (Breakout Play)
- Plan: Buy on confirmed hourly close above $4,020 with volume pickup.
- Entry: $4,022–$4,030
- Stop Loss: $3,985 (below pivot structure)
- Take Profit 1: $4,060
- Take Profit 2: $4,100
- Risk/Reward: Around 1:2.5
Why:
Price is trying to break a three-week descending pattern. A bullish close above $4,020 signals a short-term momentum shift, supported by a pattern of higher lows. Volume confirmation near breakout levels will add confidence.
Setup B Fade / Short at Resistance (Rejection Play)
- Plan: Sell near $4,060–$4,080 if rejection candles appear.
- Entry: $4,065
- Stop Loss: $4,095
- Take Profit 1: $4,020
- Take Profit 2: $3,960
- Risk/Reward: Around 1:2
Why:
This level has acted as a clear supply barrier multiple times. If price rejects again, it signals that the breakout attempt was false, opening the path for a pullback toward the midrange zone.
Short-Term Forecast (Next 24–72 Hours)
- If Fed or USD Outlook Turns Dovish
Expect gold to sustain above $4,020 and test $4,080–$4,100. The structure may then shift bullishly toward $4,140 next week. - If Outlook Remains Neutral or Cautious
Gold likely consolidates between $3,950 and $4,050, forming a range with short-term whipsaws. Traders should stay patient for breakout confirmation. - If Fed or USD Turns Hawkish / Yields Jump
The metal could slide below $3,900 again, targeting $3,870 and $3,850. A break under $3,850 may trigger deeper correction toward $3,800. - Summary Line
Tonight’s close decides whether this move is the start of a breakout or just another rejection inside the same range.
My Personal Thoughts
Honestly, this market feels like it’s testing everyone’s patience. Gold is showing signs of strength, but the hesitation around $4,010 tells me the big players are still waiting for confirmation. I personally feel that if we get a clean close above this level, momentum could quickly build toward $4,060 or even $4,100. However, I’m staying cautious the market has been full of fake breakouts lately. For me, it’s not about catching every move; it’s about catching the right one with conviction and discipline.
What is the key level to watch for a gold breakout today
The main breakout zone is around $4,020–$4,030. A confirmed close above this range could trigger a bullish move toward $4,060 and $4,100.
Where should traders place their stop-loss in this setup
For long positions, a safe stop-loss is around $3,985, just below the pivot area. For shorts near $4,065, a stop above $4,095 helps protect against false breakouts.
Is the current gold trend bullish or bearish
Gold is currently neutral-to-bullish. The short-term structure shows higher lows, but major resistance still limits upside momentum. A breakout above $4,040 would confirm bullish strength.
How should I manage risk while trading XAUUSD
Never risk more than 1% of your trading account per trade. Use proper lot sizing and always move your stop-loss to breakeven once your first target is hit.
What could cause sudden volatility in gold prices this week
Major U.S. data like Powell’s speech, CPI, or NFP reports, as well as changes in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) or Treasury yields, can trigger sharp moves in XAUUSD.
