By GoldFxPro | Analyst: Naveed Anjum | Updated: 5 November 2025
Gold soars to new record highs near $3,710 as Fed rate cut bets, dollar weakness, and safe-haven demand fuel bullish momentum. Traders watch key resistance at $3,730–$3,750 with inflation data in focus.
Key Points
- Gold recently touched all-time highs close to $3,710–$3,728, propelled by rate cut optimism.
- Dollar remains under pressure, supporting bullion’s uptrend.
- Upcoming U.S. PCE inflation reports and speeches by Fed officials are key near-term catalysts.
- Resistance in the zone $3,730–$3,750, with support around $3,690–$3,700.
- Deutsche Bank raises its gold forecast for 2026 to $4,000, citing central bank demand and likely dollar weakness.
Overview
Gold’s surge to new heights is catching everyone’s eye. The yellow metal recently climbed to near $3,710 per ounce, fuelled by mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates, combined with a softer U.S. dollar and heightened safe-haven demand. Traders now have their sights set on the $3,730–$3,750 resistance zone, while support is seen roughly around $3,690–$3,700.
Why gold is breaking records
Several key drivers are coming together to lift gold:
- Expectations of Fed rate cuts. With markets increasingly expecting two or more rate cuts by the Fed this year, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold falls. Lower interest rates generally reduce the appeal of cash and bonds relative to gold.
- Dollar weakness. A softer USD means that gold becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies and this tends to stimulate demand for bullion globally.
- Safe-haven flows and central bank buying. In uncertain times geopolitically, economically investors often turn to gold. At the same time, many central banks continue to add to their reserves, supporting structural demand.
- Inflation and real yields. If inflation remains sticky even as nominal rates fall, real yields drop and that boosts gold’s attraction as an inflation hedge.
- Technical momentum. Once gold breaks key technical levels, traders pile in, amplifying the move. The current rise has picked up stream and is now becoming self-reinforcing.
An article by the World Gold Council noted that gold prices hit a string of new all-time highs in 2025, and ETF and physical demand surged.The Guardian called this year gold’s strongest in decades. The Economic Times
The current price picture
According to recent levels, gold (the spot price for Gold or XAUUSD) is trading close to $3,710–$3,728 /oz. It’s pushing into resistance territory. The next bulk of sellers may sit in that $3,730–$3,750 zone. Meanwhile, support looks firm at $3,690–$3,700, and trend-line support sits around $3,680–$3,700.
So, if you’re watching this market, the logical view is: if gold breaks above the $3,730 zone, we might have a move toward $3,750–$3,770. But if resistance holds, a pull-back toward $3,650 or so becomes possible.
Trade signals and what to watch
Here are some trading ideas and the cues I’d personally monitor if I were actively trading XAUUSD:
Bullish scenario:
- Entry: above $3,730
- Target: $3,750 to $3,770
- Stop-loss: below $3,700 to protect against a false breakout
Bearish risk scenario:
- If gold fails to break above $3,730 or if there’s a sharp uptick in USD strength (or hawkish Fed commentary), then a drop back toward $3,650 is plausible.
- Support to watch: $3,690–$3,700 zone and trend-line near $3,680. If that breaks, deeper correction becomes more likely.
What could trip the gold rally?
As bullish as the picture is, nothing goes up in a straight line. Some risks to keep in mind:
- Strong inflation prints. If the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report comes in well above expectations, it might force the Fed to delay or cut less aggressively and that could hurt gold.
- USD strength. If the U.S. dollar turns firm (due to safe-haven flows into the dollar, or stronger U.S. economic data), gold often suffers.
- Fed or central-bank hawkishness. Any signs the Fed may keep rates higher for longer would weigh on gold’s appeal.
- Profit-taking or speculative exhaustion. After such a strong run, some consolidation or pull-back is healthy and could be ahead of the next leg up.
Why this move still feels emotional (and real)
The thing with gold right now is it’s not just chart-driven it’s emotional. Investors are nervous. They see rising debt, geopolitical tensions, inflation that won’t fully go away, and a Fed that might have to pick between softening too slowly or acting when the economy flips. Gold is a tangible hedge in that kind of environment.
Consider this: it’s easier to hold onto a rock (gold) when you worry the house of cards (the global economy) might twitch. And once something starts rising meaningfully, the fear of missing out (FOMO) kicks in, feeding the momentum. On top of that, many central banks are continuing to buy gold—not because they expect a quick flip, but because they want “safe” and non-counterparty risk assets. That base demand adds credibility to the rally.
What analysts are saying
Analyst sentiment lately is very bullish. For example:
- The World Gold Council says gold’s rally in 2025 has already exceeded many earlier forecasts. World Gold Council
- Many banks have raised their forecasts. For example, one source notes that analysts see gold heading toward $4,000/oz in 2026. NAGA
- According to Business Standard, gold hit its 39th new all-time high of 2025 and closed September around $3,825/oz, up roughly 47 % year-to-date. Business Standard
What I Personally Think
If I were putting my money where my mouth is, I’d say: yes, this gold rally is still valid but it’s time to be discerning. The setup is strong: rate cuts expected, dollar weak, safe-haven flows strong. But we’re also getting into territory where the upside may become harder and more volatile. If you’re trading XAUUSD (the spot pair) you might want to treat it like this: expect trend continuation but respect risk. Use the support and resistance levels mentioned above, and keep an eye on the news flow (Fed speeches, inflation data, dollar moves)
From a swing-trader’s view, buying above $3,730 with a tight stop below $3,700 makes sense. From a longer-term investor’s view, watching for consolidation dips into the $3,650–$3,700 zone could offer better entry. If we get a sharper sell-off, it could be a “buy the dip” opportunity rather than rush in at new highs.
What this means for you
Since I know you trade XAUUSD (or are at least interested in it):
- Make sure you’re aligned with what the market expects rather than what just happened. The market expects rate cuts and dollar weakness. If that narrative changes, gold could take a hit.
- Use clear levels: support around $3,690–$3,700, breakout above $3,730. Program your entries and exits.
- Know your risk: a reversal or false breakout around resistance is quite possible. Don’t chase blindly at new highs.
- Keep an eye on the catalysts: upcoming inflation (PCE), Fed comments, the dollar index, central bank announcements, geopolitical shocks.
- Remember: just because gold is rising doesn’t mean it rises without pauses. Healthy rallies often have pull-backs. Use them.
- If you’re using leverage (which many XAUUSD traders do), keep your risk management tight. Spot gold can move a lot when fundamentals shift.
Final thoughts
In short: Gold (XAUUSD) is enjoying a strong uptrend, propelled by rate-cut hopes, dollar weakness, safe-haven demand, and structural central-bank buying. The price is near $3,710–$3,728, and the next resistance zone to watch is $3,730–$3,750. On the flip side, support sits around $3,690–$3,700. If breakout happens, a move into the $3,750s is plausible. If it fails, a pull-back toward $3,650 is on the table.
As ever: stay nimble, stay informed, and don’t fall into the trap of “it can only go up” thinking. Gold’s story is strong but every story has chapters of consolidation. Trade it like you see the whole book, not just the next page.
(And if you’d like, I can pull up a chart with annotated support/resistance zones for XAUUSD, or a calendar of upcoming catalysts that matter. Just say the word.)
Source: See the World Gold Council demand trends and analyst forecasts report. World Gold Council
Why is gold hitting record highs in 2025
Gold is rising because the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, which weakens the dollar and increases demand for non-yielding assets like gold. Strong safe-haven buying and central bank purchases are also fueling the rally.
What is the next resistance level for XAUUSD
The next key resistance zone for gold (XAUUSD) lies between $3,730 and $3,750, where previous highs may attract profit-taking or short-term selling pressure.
Could inflation data impact gold prices
Yes. If upcoming PCE inflation data comes in higher than expected, it could delay further Fed rate cuts and temporarily strengthen the dollar—potentially pulling gold lower.
Is now a good time to buy gold
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, but traders should watch for pullbacks near $3,690–$3,700 for better entries. Buying above resistance requires tight risk management due to potential volatility.
What is the long-term outlook for gold
Analysts, including Deutsche Bank, expect gold to stay strong into 2026, with forecasts reaching $4,000 per ounce. Ongoing central bank demand and a weaker U.S. dollar support the long-term bullish view.
