Date: November 6, 2025
Author: Naveed Anjum – Market Analyst, GoldFxPro
Gold holds steady above $4,000 as institutional investors and central banks boost demand. Analysts see the current consolidation as a healthy pause before the next major rally.
Introduction
Gold (XAU/USD) is holding firm above the $4,000 level, showing resilience despite recent consolidation. While momentum traders are taking profits, long-term investors are viewing this pause as a healthy reset before the next bullish leg. With institutional demand rising and inflation risks persisting, gold’s outlook remains promising for the months ahead.
1.Gold Consolidation Seen as Healthy Pause Sprott’s Ryan McIntyre
According to Ryan McIntyre, Senior Managing Partner at Sprott Inc. gold’s inability to break above $4,000 doesn’t signal weakness. In an interview with Kitco News, McIntyre described the current sideways movement as a healthy pause following the parabolic rally seen between September and October.
He noted that economic and geopolitical uncertainty continues to support gold and silver prices. “We still have plenty of geopolitical and economic uncertainty to support higher gold and silver prices,” McIntyre said, highlighting that many investors remain underexposed to precious metals.
McIntyre also emphasized rising U.S. sovereign debt, now exceeding $38 trillion, as a key reason to hold gold. Despite the record prices, he believes gold is still fairly valued relative to other asset classes, calling it one of the best risk-return hedges available in today’s market. (Source: Kitco News)
2.Institutional Investors Join the Gold Rush
Institutional interest in gold is picking up momentum. McIntyre pointed out that Harvard Management Company recently bought $100 million worth of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)signaling growing appetite among major funds. SEC data shows that institutional ownership in GLD surged over 42% in the second quarter, suggesting that more large investors are hedging against global currency debasement and market volatility.
This shift marks a major transformation in gold’s investor base. Institutional flows often create a stronger price floor, indicating that the metal’s long-term support remains intact.
3.Gold’s Bull Market Still Intact AJ Bell’s Russ Mould
Russ Mould, Investment Director at AJ Bell, believes gold is in the midst of its third major bull run since 1971. In his analysis, he compared the current cycle to past surges the 1970s and 2000s both of which experienced multiple pullbacks and corrections before reaching record highs.
Mould explained that the drivers behind this rally soaring debt, sticky inflation, and geopolitical tensions are far from over. If growing debt, sticky inflation, war and policy pressures on central banks are all playing a role in gold’s latest rise, investors will likely stay with gold until those risks fade, he said.
He also noted that gold’s affordability relative to household income suggests further upside potential. Currently, one ounce of gold represents 6.5% of average U.S. disposable income, compared to 9% at the peak of the 1980 bull market indicating that gold isn’t yet overpriced. (Source: Kitco News)
4.China Expands Gold Influence as Cambodia Joins SGE Vault Network
China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) is expanding its global reach by offering offshore gold vaults. Cambodia is among the first countries planning to store part of its 54-ton gold reserve in SGE’s Shenzhen facility. Several other central banks are reportedly considering similar moves.
This development highlights China’s strategy to reshape the global gold market and reduce dependency on Western financial systems. Emerging-market central banks have already purchased around 1,000 tonnes of gold annually for the past three years, diversifying away from the U.S. dollar.
China’s initiative, combined with ongoing de-dollarization trends, continues to strengthen long-term gold demand globally. (Source: Bloomberg / Kitco News)
5.Retail Demand Surges Perth Mint Reports Record Sales
The Perth Mint reported a three-year high in gold sales in October, reaching 85,603 ounces, while silver demand surged 83% month-over-month. The strong physical demand reflects retail investors’ appetite for tangible assets amid inflation and global uncertainty.
Phil Baker, former chairman of The Silver Institute, said the mint has experienced unprecedented physical demand over the past five years a sign that gold’s fundamental strength remains deeply rooted in real-world buying, not just speculation.(Source: Kitco News)
6.Technical Outlook Key Levels to Watch
Gold has reclaimed the $4,000 level, currently trading near $4,018 per ounce, up nearly 0.95% on the day.
According to Trading Economics, XAU/USD is projected to reach $4,046 by quarter-end and potentially $4,260 within 12 months.
Technical Levels:
- Support: $3,950 – $3,900 – $3,850
- Resistance: $4,050 – $4,100 – $4,200
Bias: Bullish above $3,950
Gold’s ability to sustain above $4,000 could attract renewed buying interest, especially if the dollar weakens or inflation data rises again.
7.What Traders Should Watch Next
Traders should monitor upcoming U.S. inflation data, Fed statements, and geopolitical headlines from the Middle East and Asia. A weaker dollar or renewed safe-haven flows could push XAU/USD toward $4,100–$4,200, while a strong U.S. jobs report might trigger short-term corrections.
My Personal Thoughts
Gold’s pause above $4,000 feels like the calm before another breakout. The combination of debt fears, central bank buying, and institutional entry makes this consolidation look more like a setup than a slowdown. I believe any dip below $3,950 could be a buying opportunity, especially for medium-term traders.
Why is gold consolidating above $4,000
Because traders are taking profits after a strong rally, while long-term demand from central banks and institutions remains solid.
What factors are currently driving gold prices
Debt concerns, inflation, geopolitical risk, and institutional demand are the main forces behind gold’s resilience.
How does China’s gold strategy impact the global market
China’s push to store and price gold in yuan increases its influence over global pricing and challenges the U.S. dollar’s dominance.
What are the key technical levels to watch for XAU/USD
Support sits near $3,975, with resistance at $4,045. A breakout above this zone could open the door to $4,100–$4,150.
Is this a good time to buy gold
Analysts call this a “healthy pause,” offering opportunities to accumulate positions before the next potential rally.
