By GoldFXPro | Analyst: Naveed Anjum | Updated: October 28, 2025
Gold price holds near $3,660 as traders watch key resistance at $3,685 and support at $3,620.
Safe-haven demand faces pressure from a stronger US Dollar and Fed’s hawkish stance.
Market Overview
When you’re watching gold, one thing becomes clear: the metal doesn’t just move in a vacuum. It moves with fear, hope, data, and context. Right now, Gold (traded as XAU/USD) is bumping up against a natural barrier around $3,685, while finding a lifeline near $3,620. If you’re trading or following gold, this might be a moment to pause and really think about what could come next.
Current Situation
Gold is hanging around $3,660 in the Asian session. Safe-haven demand (thanks to geopolitical jitters) is still in the mix. Yet at the same time, a stronger US dollar and hawkish monetary-policy signals from Federal Reserve (the Fed) are tempering gold’s upside.
On the technical side: short-term (hourly) charts show resistance near $3,685-$3,700, while support lives in the $3,628-$3,620 zone. If gold loses that support, deeper drops toward $3,600 or even $3,562 might be on the table.
Drivers of the Move: What’s Behind the Drama?
Geopolitical Risk
When tension rises think conflicts in the Middle East or the ongoing war in Ukraine gold gets a boost. Investors treat it as a hedge, a safe-haven. That support is real.
US Dollar Strength & Fed Policy
Gold is inversely related to the dollar (in many cases). As the dollar rallies on the back of hawkish Fed commentary, strong economic prints or rate-cut delays gold tends to suffer. So while safe-haven flows support gold, a recovering dollar is a counter-force.
Economic Data
Recent US jobless claims came in lower, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surprised to the upside. That kind of data strengthens the dollar, which in turn puts pressure on gold. In short: everything’s tugging in opposite directions.
Technical Set-up: Two Key Levels to Watch
Resistance at $3,685
Gold has tried to break above this zone several times but so far it’s held firm. This suggests sellers are defending this level hard. If bulls can punch through here, it could trigger a move toward $3,700 or even higher.
Support at $3,628-$3,620
This zone is acting like a safety net for now. If broken, the next stop could be ~$3,600 or worse. Given that the 200-hour SMA (Simple Moving Average) has already been breached to the downside, this support becomes that much more important.
Outlook: What Could Happen Next?
Bullish Scenario
If gold clears $3,685 and holds above it, expect a move to $3,700 and possibly toward $3,707. Once that’s done, attention shifts to whether we can retest prior highs or make new ones.
In that case Buy signal above $3,685; target $3,700 / $3,707.
Bearish Scenario
If the $3,620 support fails, we’re likely heading toward $3,600 or maybe $3,562. That would carry with it a more bearish sentiment in the short term.
In that case Sell signal below $3,620; target $3,600 / $3,562.
Range-Trading Scenario
If gold remains stuck between $3,628 and $3,685, the market is basically in a wait-and-see mode. Until a breakout or breakdown, range plays are the name of the game.
What This Means for Traders (That Smart Friend I’m Talking To)
- If you’re holding or considering gold: keep the $3,685 and $3,620 levels in your mind like anchors.
- For short-term trades: you could fade the resistance (sell near $3,680) or buy near support (if it holds).
- If you’re more long-term: nothing has changed in the bigger up-trend of gold (assuming it is still intact). This is more about short-term posture.
- Understand why the price is doing what it’s doing: safe-haven flows and dollar strength. One supports gold; the other fights it.
- Keep an eye on data (US jobs, manufacturing, inflation) and any geopolitical flare-ups. Those are the sparks.
Why the Technicals Matter (and Connect With the Story)
- The breach of the 200-hour SMA signals short-term sellers are gaining a bit of traction.
- But the support near $3,628 is holding so far, meaning the up-trend isn’t broken.
- Resistance near $3,685 is proving stubborn, suggesting the bulls need stronger fuel (either fresh geopolitical shock or sharper dollar weakness) to break higher.
Words to Remember
- Neutral-to‐bearish (Short Term): Until gold clears that resistance or breaks that support, expect sideways or modestly downward bias.
- Still Bullish (Long Term): If this pullback holds and the structural up-trend remains, we are just in a pause.
- Key Triggers: A sustained close above ~$3,700 or a crack below ~$3,620 will likely define the next wave.
Current Market Causation – Why Gold is Moving the Way It Is
Right now, gold is trading sideways because of a tug-of-war between two forces:
- Safe-haven demand after renewed conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine front. Investors are buying gold for protection against uncertainty.
- A firm US Dollar after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish comments. Even after a 25-basis-point rate cut, the Fed signalled that further cuts will be “data dependent,” which keeps yields high and pressures gold.
- Bond Market Moves US 10-year Treasury yields have inched higher this week, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
- Chinese Demand Slows Seasonally after the Golden Week holidays, creating a temporary dip in physical buying interest.
- Oil Prices Rising Again are supporting inflation expectations, which in turn limit the Fed’s room to cut rates aggressively again capping gold’s rally.
In simple words, gold is stuck between safe-haven buyers and rate-sensitive sellers. Traders are waiting for a clear break either above $3,685 or below $3,620 to define the next big move.
(Source: Reuters, Kitco News, FXStreet)
Final Thoughts
Here’s how I’d wrap this up if I were chatting with you over coffee: gold is at a moment of decision. It has the upside potential if resistance breaks, but the downside risk if support fails. The range between $3,628 and $3,685 is the battlefield. Until one side wins, expect muted swings.
For anyone trading gold now: stay light, stay aware, and have clear triggers. Know which scenario you’re playing for (bull breakout vs breakdown vs range). The key levels I’ve mentioned will tell you when the story changes.
If you’d like a chart screenshot, more zone levels (like intermediate support/resistances), or a trade plan around this setup just say the word.
Why is gold struggling under $3,685
Because that zone has become a strong resistance, and meanwhile the dollar is recovering which works against gold’s upside.
What’s the most important support right now
That ~$3,628-$3,620 zone. If it gives way, things could turn more bearish.
How do geopolitics impact gold
When global tensions rise, safe-haven demand rises. That raises gold. But if economic strength kicks in and the dollar strengthens, that works against gold.
What role does the Fed play in gold’s moves
Big role. If the Fed signals rate cuts or becomes dovish, that weakens the dollar and supports gold. If the Fed signals rate hikes or stays hawkish, that strengthens the dollar and puts pressure on gold.
What technical tools are most relevant
Moving averages (especially the 200-hour SMA), support/resistance zones, and chart patterns (flags, breakouts). These help you visualise the risk/reward.
