By GoldFxPro | Analyst: Naveed Anjum | Updated: October 19, 2025
Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) ended last week on a softer note, easing from record highs near $4,380 as traders took profits following an extended rally. The yellow metal faced renewed selling pressure late Friday amid a modest rebound in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields suggesting that gold might be entering a short-term consolidation phase.
However, from a broader perspective, the bullish trend remains fully intact. Strong central-bank buying, persistent geopolitical tensions, and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut before year-end continue to provide firm support for gold prices.
Heading into the new trading week (October 21–25, 2025), investors will be closely watching the $4,200–$4,180 support zone for potential buying momentum. On the upside, the $4,330–$4,380 resistance range remains a key barrier. Market sentiment suggests a phase of cooling momentum a healthy pause before gold’s next major move.
Central Banks Keep Buying Gold Even After Record Highs Strategic Accumulation Persists
Even as gold prices corrected slightly from their recent peak near $4,380, central banks continue to buy gold aggressively. According to the World Gold Council, nations such as China, India, and Turkey remain consistent buyers, adding to their reserves despite record-high prices.
This steady accumulation signals long-term confidence in gold’s stability. Many central banks are strategically diversifying away from the U.S. dollar, especially amid geopolitical uncertainty and shifting global trade dynamics.
In my view, this behavior shows a deep structural shift in the global monetary system where gold is once again being treated as a reserve backbone, not just a hedge. As long as central banks keep accumulating, downside risks for XAU/USD are likely limited.
HSBC Sees Gold Soaring to $5,000 by 2026 Amid Safe-Haven Surge
Leading global lender HSBC recently revised its gold price forecast, projecting that XAU/USD could reach $5,000 by 2026. Their outlook is based on rising safe-haven demand, falling real yields, and a weaker U.S. dollar environment.
While short-term pullbacks like the current one are part of a healthy market cycle, the overall structure remains strongly bullish. The recent dip is viewed as profit-taking, not a trend reversal.
Personally, I agree with this perspective fundamentals are simply too strong to ignore. With interest rate cuts likely coming from the Fed and inflation still elevated, the real yield environment will continue to favor gold.
Gold Market Cap Jumps by $300 Billion as XAU/USD Hits New Highs
Gold’s total market capitalization has surged by more than $300 billion, reflecting massive investor inflows into both physical gold and ETFs. This isn’t just a speculative rally it’s a global reallocation of capital into tangible assets.
Persistent inflation, high government debt, and geopolitical uncertainty are prompting both institutional and retail investors to increase exposure to gold. The move aligns with a broader de-dollarization trend, as countries seek safety from fiat currency volatility.
To me, this reinforces that gold’s rally isn’t just about price it’s about trust. Investors are moving capital into something real, scarce, and enduring.
IMF Flags U.S.–China Trade Tensions as Key Risk for Global Growth Fueling Gold Demand
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently warned that U.S.–China trade tensions could hurt global growth and increase market uncertainty. These warnings have reignited safe-haven demand for gold, as investors brace for potential economic slowdown.
Whenever global trade or diplomacy turns volatile, gold benefits and 2025 is no exception. Rising tariffs, disrupted supply chains, and policy conflicts are all prompting investors to seek refuge in bullion.
This aligns with what I’ve been observing in the markets fear-driven capital rotation into safe-haven assets. It’s a classic example of gold thriving amid uncertainty.
Falling Real Yields and Weaker USD Fuel Gold Bull Run into Late 2025
Falling U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar are giving gold a sustained tailwind. As the Federal Reserve edges closer to policy easing, real yields have turned increasingly negative a perfect environment for non-yielding assets like gold to shine.
Meanwhile, the dollar’s softness against major currencies is attracting additional foreign buying of gold. These macro factors are likely to remain supportive through late 2025, keeping gold in a long-term bullish trajectory.
In my opinion, as long as the Fed remains cautious and inflation persists above its 2% target, gold will continue to outperform traditional risk assets.
Safe-Haven Surge Global Investors Pour into Gold Amid Debasement Fears
Global investors are showing renewed enthusiasm for gold as a hedge against currency debasement and excessive liquidity injections by central banks. With interest rates being cut across major economies, fears of long-term fiat currency erosion are once again in focus.
Both institutional funds and retail traders are increasing exposure to physical bullion and ETFs, reinforcing gold’s reputation as the ultimate store of value.
As I often tell my readers “In uncertain times, gold doesn’t just hold value, it defines value.”
U.S. CPI Data in Focus: Inflation Report on Oct 24 Could Set the Next Move for Gold (XAU/USD)
The upcoming release of the U.S. CPI and Core CPI data on Friday, October 24 is expected to be a major market mover. Analysts forecast headline inflation at 0.4% month-over-month and core CPI at 0.3%, with the annual rate hovering near 3.1%.
If the data comes in hotter than expected, it could push real yields higher and strengthen the dollar temporarily pressuring gold. But a softer reading may support the idea of a Fed rate cut, potentially sparking another rally.
For gold traders, this event is crucial. CPI is not just an inflation measure it’s a market sentiment trigger. With prices consolidating around the $4,200 zone, the inflation data could be the catalyst for gold’s next breakout.
Key Sources
World Gold Council (WGC) – https://www.gold.org
→ Source for global central bank gold reserves and institutional demand trends.
Trading Economics – Gold Price Data & CPI Reports
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
→ Source for U.S. inflation expectations and CPI projections affecting gold prices.
Reuters Commodities News – https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities
→ Reference for macroeconomic headlines, gold forecast updates, and central bank policy coverage.
IMF Global Outlook Report (2025) – https://www.imf.org
→ Supporting link for U.S.–China trade tension and global growth risk section.
HSBC Global Research Report (Gold Forecast 2025–26) – https://www.hsbc.com/investors
→ Credible source for long-term gold forecast toward $5,000 per ounce.
Also Read > https://goldfxpro.com/weekly-forecast/gold-weekly-forecast-inflation-fed-and-shutdown-in-focus-as-strong-trend-faces-limited-pullback/
Technical Weekly Forecast (Oct 21–25 2025)
Gold (XAU/USD) is expected to trade in a consolidation phase next week (Oct 21–25, 2025) after its recent sharp rally and mild correction from the $4,380 peak. The broader trend remains bullish, but short-term momentum has cooled as traders lock in profits. Strong support lies between $4,180–$4,200, where fresh buying interest is likely to emerge, while resistance sits near $4,330–$4,380. As long as prices hold above $4,180, the outlook favors a buy-on-dips strategy, targeting a potential rebound toward $4,350–$4,400. A break below $4,160, however, could signal a deeper pullback before the next bullish leg resumes.
Technical Levels
| Type | Price Zone | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Major Resistance 1 | $4,330 – $4,380 | Previous swing high, profit-booking zone |
| Minor Resistance 2 | $4,280 – $4,300 | Intraday rejection zone |
| Immediate Support 1 | $4,200 – $4,180 | Key retracement & previous breakout base |
| Major Support 2 | $4,120 – $4,100 | Deeper correction zone if sentiment weakens |
Trading Setup (Swing / Short-Term)
| Setup | Price | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Buy Entry (Long Position) | $4,210 – $4,230 | Look for bullish candle confirmation or double-bottom pattern near this zone |
| Take-Profit 1 (TP1) | $4,280 | Conservative target / first reaction |
| Take-Profit 2 (TP2) | $4,330 – $4,350 | Next resistance zone |
| Take-Profit 3 (TP3) | $4,380 – $4,400 | Extended target if bullish momentum resumes |
| Stop-Loss (SL) | $4,160 | Below key support & invalidation level |
| Risk : Reward (RR) | Around 1 : 2.5 – 1 : 3 (favorable for swing traders) |
Alternative Scenario (If Bearish Break Occurs)
If price breaks below $4,180 with strong volume:
- Expect further drop toward $4,100 – $4,050 zone.
- Next buying opportunity could emerge only after a confirmed reversal pattern on 4H chart.
Technical Indicators Summary
- Moving Averages (20 & 50 EMA): Up-sloping, supporting bullish structure.
- RSI (4H): Cooling near 55–60 — showing consolidation, not overbought anymore.
- MACD: Weakening momentum but still above zero-line (bullish bias).
- Volume: Spike during pullback — likely profit-taking, not distribution.
Profit Point Projection
If bullish momentum resumes:
- $4,280 = + 50 pts
- $4,330 = + 100 pts
- $4,380–$4,400 = + 150–170 pts potential from $4,230 entry
Weekly Summary
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, supported by macro fundamentals and technical structure. After touching record highs, the market entered a healthy correction phase.
Next week, consolidation is expected above the $4,180–$4,200 zone, which acts as a strong base. If buyers defend this support, another upside leg toward $4,350 + looks likely.
- Bias: Buy-on-dips
- Strategy: Wait for 4H bullish confirmation near $4,210–$4,230
- Medium-Term Target: $4,380 – $4,450
- Invalidation Below: $4,160
ICT-Based Analysis for XAU/USD (Week of Oct 21–25, 2025)
1️⃣ Market Structure:
Gold remains in a macro bullish structure, with consistent higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) visible on the 4H chart. The recent rejection from $4,380 appears to be a liquidity sweep above prior buy-side liquidity, not a structural reversal. This suggests a possible reaccumulation phase before the next expansion.
2️⃣ Liquidity Pools:
- Buy-side liquidity: Above $4,340–$4,380, where stop orders from short-sellers sit.
- Sell-side liquidity: Below $4,200–$4,180, where late longs placed their stops.
Smart money is likely engineering liquidity on both sides before a decisive move typical ICT “kill zone” behavior before a trend continuation.
3️⃣ Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
There’s a visible 4H FVG between $4,210–$4,230, which could act as a re-entry point for institutional buyers. Expect price to retrace into this zone early in the week before expanding higher.
4️⃣ Optimal Trade Entry (OTE):
Using the Fibonacci retracement of the last impulsive leg ($4,185 → $4,380), the 62–70% OTE zone lies near $4,220–$4,230, perfectly aligning with the fair value gap. This is where smart money will likely accumulate long positions.
5️⃣ Premium & Discount Zones:
Current price ($4,250) is slightly below equilibrium of the recent range — meaning gold is trading in a discount zone, favorable for long entries under ICT concepts.
ICT Forecast Summary
- Bias: Bullish (Smart Money Accumulation Phase)
- Buy Zone (OTE): $4,215 – $4,235
- Stop Loss: Below $4,175 (under sell-side liquidity)
- Target 1 (Partial TP): $4,320 (recent swing high)
- Target 2 (Final TP): $4,375 – $4,400 (new buy-side liquidity zone)
- Invalidation: Daily close below $4,160 (shift in structure)
From an ICT perspective, Gold (XAU/USD) is currently in a classic smart money accumulation phase following last week’s liquidity sweep above $4,380. The market structure remains bullish, and the recent drop toward $4,200 appears to be engineered to draw in liquidity below short-term lows. A fair value gap and optimal trade entry (OTE) zone align between $4,215–$4,235, where institutional buyers are likely to step back in. As long as price holds above $4,175, the next leg higher toward $4,375–$4,400 remains the probable target. Traders should monitor this discount zone early in the week for confirmation of accumulation and potential bullish expansion into new highs.
Technical & Charting References
S&P Global Market Intelligence – https://www.spglobal.com/
→ Supporting source for CPI data and inflation-driven macro trends mentioned in the article.
Investing.com – XAU/USD Technical Overview
https://www.investing.com/currencies/xau-usd-technical
→ Daily and weekly chart references for price action and resistance/support validation.
FXStreet – Gold Price Analysis
https://www.fxstreet.com/
→ Secondary verification source for short-term sentiment and price levels.
GoldFXPro Insight: My Personal Outlook on XAU/USD for the Week Ahead
In my view, the recent pullback in Gold (XAU/USD) is a healthy part of its ongoing bullish structure, not a sign of reversal. The market is simply rebalancing liquidity before the next expansion leg. As per both technical confluence and ICT principles, the $4,210–$4,230 zone looks like a premium buy area for smart money accumulation. I expect gold to maintain its strength as long as it holds above $4,180, with a potential upside move toward $4,375–$4,400 in the coming sessions. Overall, my bias remains “buy-on-dips”, supported by both technical structure and macro fundamentals like softer yields and sustained central-bank demand.
Top 5 FAQs on Gold (XAU/USD) Oct 2025
1. Why did gold fall after hitting new highs last week?
Gold faced profit-taking after reaching record highs near $4,380, coupled with a mild recovery in the U.S. dollar and yields. It’s a short-term correction within a long-term uptrend.
2. Is the gold bull run over?
Not at all. The long-term trend remains bullish, supported by central bank buying, falling yields, and a weaker dollar.
3. What key levels should traders watch this week?
Support sits near $4,180–$4,200, while resistance remains at $4,330–$4,380. A break above $4,380 could open the path to $4,450+.
4. How will the upcoming U.S. CPI data affect gold prices?
A stronger CPI could lift the dollar and pressure gold. But a softer print would likely boost gold as rate-cut bets rise.
5. What’s your outlook for gold by year-end 2025?
I expect gold to remain firm, trading between $4,200–$4,600, with potential for new highs if the Fed pivots dovish and geopolitical tensions persist.
