By GoldFXPro | Analyst: Naveed Anjum | Updated: November 03, 2025
Gold (XAUUSD) is testing key support at $3,640–$3,625 after a trendline break on the H1 chart. Read today’s intraday forecast with trading levels, bias, and breakout outlook for short-term traders.
Introduction
Gold traders are walking on a tightrope today. The yellow metal (XAUUSD) is testing a critical zone after breaking below its uptrend line on the hourly (H1) chart. While bulls are holding on to key support at $3,640 – $3,625, sellers are tightening their grip, pushing the price lower and threatening another dip toward the $3,600 region.
This analysis takes a closer look at gold’s short-term technical outlook, support and resistance levels, and possible trade setups for the day. We’ll also discuss what traders should watch for in the hours ahead and how global sentiment is shaping the intraday picture.
Market Overview – Gold Under Pressure After Trendline Break
Gold has been showing signs of exhaustion after a long rally. On the H1 chart, the price clearly broke below a well-defined uptrend line, signaling weakness in momentum. This break tells us that buyers are no longer in full control at least not for now.
Currently, gold is hovering near the $3,640 zone, and traders are paying close attention to how price reacts around this level. A firm break below $3,625 could open the door toward $3,610 or even $3,600 in the short term. On the other hand, if gold manages to hold this support, we might see a small recovery toward $3,668 or $3,688.
According to market data from Investing.com, gold futures slipped slightly during the Asian session as the dollar firmed, with traders waiting for more clarity from the upcoming U.S. economic reports.
Technical Analysis – H1 Chart Structure and Price Behavior
On the H1 chart, gold is now moving inside a descending channel, which reflects a corrective or consolidation phase after a strong uptrend. Each rally attempt is getting weaker, and each drop finds temporary support before bouncing modestly a sign of indecision.
Key Technical Levels:
- Immediate Support: $3,640 – $3,625
- Next Support: $3,610 – $3,600
- Immediate Resistance: $3,668 – $3,672
- Breakout Resistance: $3,688 – $3,692
These levels act like short-term barriers for intraday traders. As long as gold remains below $3,688, the overall tone stays bearish. A clear breakout above $3,692 would be the first sign that bulls are returning to the market.
The Trendline Break – Why It Matters
Trendlines often act as emotional markers in trading. They represent the line of confidence for market participants. When gold broke below its uptrend line, it wasn’t just a technical event it was a signal that traders’ confidence in continued upside momentum was fading.
This kind of break tends to trigger short-term profit-taking and fresh selling pressure. In simple terms, when that line gave way, buyers stepped back and sellers stepped in. That’s why gold is now testing deeper support zones.
As noted by Kitco News, gold often reacts strongly around psychological levels like $3,600 because that’s where large traders and institutions reassess their positions.
Chart Pattern – The Descending Channel in Focus
The current price action is forming what looks like a descending channel, which suggests that gold is in a corrective phase. Within this structure, price tends to make lower highs and lower lows, signaling short-term bearishness. However, these patterns also often lead to strong breakouts once the correction ends.
If gold continues to respect this channel, we can expect price to fluctuate between $3,625 and $3,688 before making a decisive move. A close above $3,692 on the H1 chart could break the pattern and shift the bias to bullish, targeting $3,710 – $3,720.
Intraday Trading Plan
1. Sell on Rally (Main Bias – Bearish)
- Entry Zone: $3,668 – $3,678 (look for rejection signals)
- Target: $3,640 – $3,625
- Stop Loss: Above $3,692
This plan follows the current bearish momentum. The idea is to sell when price bounces into resistance and starts to turn lower again. Until gold breaks above the $3,692 resistance zone, sellers remain in control.
2. Buy on Dip (Aggressive Counter-Trade)
- Entry Zone: $3,625 – $3,628 (support hold confirmation)
- Target: $3,655 – $3,668
- Stop Loss: Below $3,620
This setup is for traders looking to catch a short-lived bounce from the support zone. It’s not the main trade of the day, but for quick scalps, it could offer limited upside potential.
Sentiment and Market Psychology
Right now, the gold market feels hesitant. Traders are not overly bullish or bearish they’re cautious. Many are waiting for confirmation from either a breakout above $3,692 or a breakdown below $3,625.
A large part of this uncertainty is linked to the U.S. dollar. The DXY index has been trading firmly near recent highs, supported by stable Treasury yields and cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials. A strong dollar typically weighs on gold prices because it makes the metal more expensive for non-U.S. buyers.
However, any sign of economic slowdown or dovish remarks from the Fed could quickly flip sentiment back in gold’s favor.
What to Watch Today
- U.S. Economic Data: Keep an eye on today’s jobless claims and manufacturing figures. Weak numbers could trigger a dollar pullback and lift gold.
- Dollar Index (DXY): If DXY moves above 105.50, gold may face renewed pressure. A dip below 105 could support a short-term gold rebound.
- Bond Yields: Lower yields generally favor gold. Watch for any shift in 10-year Treasury yields.
- Geopolitical News: Any escalation in geopolitical tensions tends to spark safe-haven demand for gold.
Trading Psychology – Stay Calm, Stay Patient
It’s easy to get caught up in intraday noise, but trading gold requires emotional control. If you find yourself reacting to every tick, step back and look at the bigger structure. Remember that patience is a position.
Smart traders know when not to trade. If the market is trapped between tight levels like $3,640 – $3,688, it’s often better to wait for a clear direction. When the breakout happens, it usually rewards those who stayed disciplined.
Short-Term Outlook
- Bearish Bias: Below $3,688
- Neutral Zone: $3,640 – $3,688 (range-bound area)
- Bullish Confirmation: Above $3,692 (H1 close)
A close below $3,625 could accelerate selling toward $3,600, while a breakout above $3,692 could flip the outlook toward $3,710 – $3,720.
Expert Insight
Market analysts from FXStreet note that gold’s near-term weakness could persist unless the dollar softens or risk sentiment worsens.The market remains technically vulnerable below $3,690, but dips into $3,620–$3,600 may still attract buyers, they added.
This reflects a classic intraday scenario: short-term traders selling rallies while medium-term investors wait for deeper entries.
Final Thoughts
The gold market is at a critical turning point. The trendline break has clearly weakened the short-term structure, but strong support is still holding the line. This tug of war between buyers and sellers will likely resolve soon, with a breakout above $3,692 or a breakdown below $3,625 signaling the next major move.
Until then, the best strategy may be to sell rallies, buy dips, and stay flexible. The market is whispering clues all you need to do is listen carefully.
Source:
- Kitco News – Gold Price Update
- Investing.com – Gold Futures Overview
- FXStreet – XAU/USD Technical Outlook
What is the current trend for Gold (XAUUSD)
Gold is currently showing a short-term bearish trend on the H1 chart after breaking its uptrend line, with price consolidating below the $3,688 resistance zone.
What are the key support and resistance levels for gold today
Immediate support lies at $3,640–$3,625, while resistance is seen around $3,688–$3,692. A close above $3,692 may shift momentum to bullish.
Is it a good time to buy or sell gold intraday
As long as gold trades below $3,688, the short-term bias remains bearish — ideal for selling rallies. However, aggressive traders may look for quick buy scalps near $3,625 support.
What is the short-term outlook for XAU/USD
Gold’s short-term outlook is bearish unless it breaks above $3,692. A breakdown below $3,625 could lead to a drop toward $3,600, while a breakout may target $3,710–$3,720.
How does the U.S. dollar affect gold prices
Gold usually moves opposite to the U.S. dollar. When the dollar strengthens, gold prices tend to fall, and when the dollar weakens, gold often rises due to renewed safe-haven demand.
