Date: October 27, 2025
Author: Naveed Anjum, Senior Gold Market Analyst – GoldFXPro.com
Gold (XAU/USD) slips toward $4,050 as optimism over a potential US–China trade deal dampens safe-haven demand.
Traders eye the Fed’s upcoming rate cut for fresh direction heading into mid-week trading.
Market Summary
| Current Price | Trend Bias | Sentiment | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~US$4,065 | Bearish below ~US$4,100 | Risk-On | Moderate |
Executive Summary
Gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure at the start of the week, trading near US$4,065 per ounce. Optimism around a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China is reducing demand for safe-haven assets like gold. At the same time, softer U.S. inflation data and strong expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve are offering support. The key resistance at roughly US$4,100 remains intact and is keeping bulls cautious.
Fundamental Overview
The latest leg down in gold follows encouraging signs from the U.S.–China trade talks in Malaysia last week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both sides reached a preliminary understanding on areas including export controls, fentanyl-precursor restrictions and shipping levies, setting the stage for a possible meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this week.
This development has lifted risk appetite globally, which typically weighs on gold. On the flip side, the Fed-cut expectations remain supportive for gold’s longer-term story.
- Fed Outlook: Markets are pricing in a 25 bps rate cut at the October 29 meeting, and possibly another in December. The Fed’s focus appears to be shifting from inflation to labour concerns.
- Inflation Data: The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.3 % in September, lifting the annual rate to 3.0 % slightly below expectations. That makes the rate-cut scenario more plausible.
- Market Mood: While gold’s trend remains overall bullish, traders are locking in profits after its recent run. The two-day Fed meeting this week means many are waiting on the sidelines.
Technical Analysis
4-Hour Chart: Bearish Bias Below US$4,100
Gold has broken the key US$4,100 support zone, which aligns with the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50, indicating downside momentum.
- A “bear cross” has formed (21-SMA crossing below 100-SMA) suggesting further weakness.
- Key Levels:
- Immediate support: ~US$4,000 (round number)
- Next support zone: ~US$3,950 to US$3,920 (near 200-SMA)
- Resistance: ~US$4,100 (formerly support), then US$4,150, US$4,193
- If US$4,000 breaks, price could test US$3,850. On the upside, a rebound above US$4,100 could open a move toward US$4,250.
Daily Chart: Bull Structure Still Intact
Despite the near-term pull-back, gold’s daily trend remains broadly bullish, supported by an ascending broadening wedge pattern. After peaking near US$4,381, the correction seems healthy for now. The next few sessions around US$4,000–US$3,850 are key to confirming further direction.
Market Outlook: 27–28 October 2025
- Bias: Short-term bearish, longer-term bullish
- Intraday range: US$3,950 – US$4,120
- Key driver: Fed decision and commentary
- Trading setup:
- Sell below: ~US$4,090
- Target: US$4,000 / US$3,950
- Stop-Loss: US$4,135
- Alternative (buy scenario): Above US$4,150, target US$4,200–US$4,250
- Sell below: ~US$4,090
Gold is navigating a delicate phase. Renewed optimism around U.S.–China trade talks and improved risk sentiment are acting as headwinds for the safe-haven metal. Meanwhile, the Fed’s dovish tone and easing inflation give underpinning support. A firm break below US$4,000 would signal deeper correction, but the broader bullish structure remains intact through year-end.
Sources
- FXStreet –Gold remains depressed … US-China trade deal FXStreet
- FXStreet –Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD tumbles FXStreet
- Bloomberg – Gold extends drop as US-China trade progress erodes haven demand” Bloomberg
- Politico –Framework in place for substantial trade deal with China, Scott Bessent says” Politico
- TradingEconomics – Gold price historical & current data Trading Economics
Personal Thoughts
Honestly, gold feels like it’s trying to catch its breath after a wild few weeks. The bulls still have the upper hand as long as we stay above US$4,050. For me, the next big move hinges largely on how the Fed frames its upcoming rate cut. If Chair Powell leans into growth concerns, gold might get another push. If he sounds confident and paints a brighter picture, we could see a deeper pull-back. I’m staying patient and watching how the US$4,100 zone behaves — it still feels like the heartbeat of this market.
Why is gold (XAU/USD) falling today?
Gold prices are under pressure as optimism over a potential US–China trade deal reduces safe-haven demand. Investors are moving toward riskier assets like equities, limiting gold’s upside despite dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve.
What is the current gold price today?
As of October 27, 2025, gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $4,065 per ounce, slightly below the key $4,100 resistance zone.
How could the Federal Reserve meeting affect gold prices?
Markets widely expect a 25-basis-point rate cut this week. A dovish tone from the Fed could support gold, while a hawkish surprise may trigger deeper corrections below $4,000.
What are the key technical levels for XAU/USD?
Immediate support sits near $4,000, with stronger support around $3,950–$3,920. Resistance levels appear at $4,100, $4,150, and $4,193. A sustained break above $4,100 could spark a rebound toward $4,250.
Is gold still bullish for the long term?
Yes, the broader trend remains bullish. The current drop looks like a correction within an uptrend. As long as gold holds above $3,850–$4,000, the outlook favors a renewed push toward the $4,380–$4,400 zone later this year.
