By GoldFxPro | Analyst: Naveed Anjum | Updated: 5 November 2025
Gold hovers near record highs at $3,753 as traders await Powell’s speech and U.S. PCE data. Key levels to watch: $3,715 support and $3,760 resistance for breakout or reversal signals.
Gold is trading around $3,753 in the spot market, propelled by expectations of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and a softer U.S. dollar. But beneath the surface, the metal is overextended, and there’s a meaningful risk of a pull-back if support gives way. With Fed Chair Jerome Powell about to speak and core inflation data (PCE) looming, the next few days could be pivotal for the yellow metal.
Key Points at a Glance
- Gold has hit near record highs around $3,753, helped by growing hopes of a Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar.
- Technical indicators suggest it’s in overbought territory meaning the rally may be vulnerable.
- The critical support level sits at $3,715; if this breaks, we could see a drop toward $3,690-$3,700 or lower.
- On the upside, if gold breaks above ~$3,760, the next target zone is $3,780-$3,800.
- Upcoming fundamentals: Powell’s speech, U.S. PCE inflation data, and the dollar’s direction.
- Traders should consider a short near $3,753-$3,760 with a stop above $3,780, or an alternate bullish play if a breakout occurs above $3,760.
- Major risks: hawkish Fed tone, strong USD, inflation surprise, or profit-taking.
Market Overview
Gold’s latest push toward $3,753 reflects a cocktail of factors. First, markets are increasingly priced for further Fed rate cuts. Lower interest rates tend to be supportive of gold because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Secondly, the U.S. dollar has softened, which improves the appeal of gold for holders of other currencies. Third, the safe-haven appeal of gold is elevated amid geopolitical unease and global economic worries.
All of this has triggered a strong bullish momentum. But when momentum runs hot, it often invites caution. When a price moves rapidly, especially into record territory, the risk of a sharp correction increases either through technical exhaustion or a shift in sentiment.
Technical Touch
Turning to the charts: Gold is currently trading near the $3,753 level, which has become a key focal point for bulls and bears alike. On shorter time-frames (daily and 4-hour charts), indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are flashing overbought. That raises a yellow flag: momentum is strong, but the room to run could be limited.
Let’s lay out the critical zones:
Resistance Zones
- $3,760 if the price rises above this zone convincingly, it opens a path to the next level.
- $3,780-$3,800 this is the extended target range in a strong bullish scenario.
Support Zones
- $3,715 the first key floor. A breakdown here could lead to deeper correction.
- $3,690-$3,700 this is a secondary support region if the first fails.
- $3,650 the deeper correction zone if weakness persists.
In short: if gold holds above the $3,715 support, the uptrend remains intact. But if that level cracks, we may see a pullback toward the $3,690-$3,700 zone or even $3,650. Conversely, a breakout above $3,760 would give bulls room to run toward $3,800.
Trade Signal & Recommendation
Here’s how you might think about trading this situation (always remembering this is for educational/informational purposes, not personal advice):
Tactical Pullback Trade (short-term bearish scenario):
- Enter: Short around $3,753-$3,760 resistance.
- Stop-loss: Above $3,780 (to protect if breakout occurs).
- Target: First profit near $3,715. If weakness extends, target $3,690.
- Risk rationale: Price is extended technically; overbought indicators suggest lower odds of immediate upside without consolidation; key support is nearby.
Alternate Bullish Play:
- If gold decisively breaks above $3,760 (volume, candle close, breakout signals), then:
- Enter long on the breakout.
- Stop-loss: Just under $3,730.
- Target: $3,780-$3,800.
- Rationale: A breakout above resistance often triggers momentum, pushing toward the next target zone.
As always, trade size, risk management, and discipline are key. You might favour waiting for confirmation rather than chasing the move.
Fundamental Drivers
1.Fed Rate-Cut Expectations
Markets are betting that the Fed will cut rates further (after existing cuts) in the near term. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and tend to weaken the dollar. This is bullish for gold. On the flip side, if the Fed signals caution or delays cuts, the dollar may strengthen and gold could suffer.
2.U.S. Dollar Weakness
Gold is priced in dollars; when the dollar loses value, gold becomes cheaper in other currencies boosting global demand. A continued dollar dip supports the gold rally. But if the dollar reverses due to better-than-expected inflation or strong economic data gold could face headwinds.
3.Safe-Haven Demand & Geopolitical Risk
Gold is also driven by fear and uncertainty. Events such as global instability, rising inflation, or fiscal/monetary policy uncertainty push investors toward gold as a refuge. These macro themes give structural support to gold beyond short-term speculative moves.
4.Overbought Technical Conditions
Rapid rallies often attract profit-taking and corrections. When technical indicators show overbought readings (as they do now), it suggests caution. The longer and harder a rally goes, the higher the risk of a reversal or consolidation.
Why Now Feels Emotionally Charged
Imagine this: you’re watching gold break to record highs, and the air is thick with optimism. Every new high feels like “just one more push higher. The headlines talk about rate cuts, weak dollar, safe havens it’s making you feel like you’ll regret not being in. That’s the emotional hook.
But let’s flip the mirror: with excitement comes risk. When everyone is leaning one way, the market may have already discounted much of the good news. That’s where the tension lies. One miss from the Fed, one surprise in inflation data, or one dollar strength move can flip sentiment quickly. In essence, you’re standing on a cliff edge: high upside, but the drop below is real.
When I tell a smart friend about this, I’d say Look, you’ve got a nice rally going, but ask yourself how much of the good news is already counted in? If you’re in now, you may be holding risk more than reward. If you wait for a clear breakout or a pullback, you may gain a better edge.
What risks could derail the rally?
- A hawkish shift from the Fed (fewer/more limited cuts)
- A stronger than expected U.S. dollar
- Unexpected spike in U.S. inflation or a resilient economy
- Broad profit-taking after the rapid run-up
- Global calm returning (reducing safe-haven demand)
Should a trader buy now or wait for a pullback?
If you’re conservative: wait for a pullback toward support $3,715-$3,700 or a clear breakout above resistance $3,760. If you’re more aggressive: you might enter now, but with a tighter stop and smaller size accepting higher risk for higher reward.
Is gold forming a bubble
Some analysts warn of a bubble because of the rapid gains and overbought technicals. Yet, when we look at the structural landscape — inflation worries, central-bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty it still appears more like a strong bull market than an outright bubble. Nevertheless, bubbles often end with a sharp move, not a slow drift, so vigilance is wise.
What happens if support at $3,715 breaks
If $3,715 fails, it would signal a breakdown of the short-term trend. That opens the door to a drop toward the $3,690-$3,700 zone next, and potentially toward $3,650 if that fails. Holding above that support keeps the bullish case alive; breaking it weakens it.
How important is Powell’s speech
Very important.The speech from Powell can shift market expectations about future rate cuts, the Fed’s inflation outlook, and its willingness to ease. Any hawkish tone signalling fewer or no cuts could rally the dollar and hurt gold. A dovish tone could fuel further gold gains.
Will gold reach ~$3,800 soon
Yes, it remains possible if gold clears $3,760 with momentum, the next target $3,780-$3,800 comes into play. But that is conditional. Without a breakout,the risk of reversal is higher than the reward of sprinting upward from current levels.
Should a trader buy now or wait for a pullback
If you’re conservative: wait for a pullback toward support $3,715-$3,700 or a clear breakout above resistance $3,760. If you’re more aggressive: you might enter now, but with a tighter stop and smaller size — accepting higher risk for higher reward.
