By GoldFxPro | Published: October 7, 2025 (Updated 09:30 GMT)
Today’s XAU/USD Forecast
Gold prices continue to trade within a bullish structure, holding above 3920 support on the H1 chart. Traders are watching for a breakout above 3965 for further upside toward 4000 levels.
Key Points
- Gold (XAUUSD) breached $3,900, reaching new all-time highs, backed by safe-haven flows. Reuters
- Fed rate cut expectations remain strong, fueling bullish sentiment on gold. Reuters
- Overbought RSI near 67 suggests there’s risk of short-term pullback.
- Support zones around $3,872, $3,820, and $3,753 are critical to watch.
- A clean break above $3,950 may open path toward $4,000 and beyond.
Market Overview
Gold continues to race upward, breaking above $3,900 on Monday amid growing investor concerns over the U.S. government shutdown and mounting risks globally. Reuters Expectations that the Fed will ease monetary policy have given the non-yielding yellow metal strong tailwinds. Traders now watch whether gold can sustain momentum toward higher resistance levels.
However, some caution is creeping in: the rise has been sharp and RSI readings suggest overbought conditions. A temporary retracement or sideways consolidation may occur before the next leg up.
Fundamental Overview
The U.S. shutdown continues to weigh on economic data flow, delaying jobs, inflation, and other key releases. That lack of clarity supports gold as investors lean into safe-haven demand. Reuters
Meanwhile, markets are pricing in greater odds of Fed rate cuts in October and December. HSBC recently suggested gold could cross $4,000/oz in the near term on these dovish expectations. Reuters
Geopolitical tensions and steady central bank buying also add structural support to gold’s rally. The weaker U.S. dollar is another factor making dollar-priced gold more attractive globally.
Technical Snapshot
On the 4-hour / daily charts:
- RSI is near 67, showing strong momentum but hinting at overbought risk.
- Price is above trendline support, with a rising slope, reinforcing the uptrend.
- Resistance zones: $3,950 – $4,000 are psychological and structural hurdles.
- On a dip, $3,872 (near 21-SMA), $3,820 (50-SMA) and $3,753 (100-SMA) are key support levels.
A decisive close above $3,950 could propel gold toward $4,000, while failure to break this zone might trigger a short-term correction.
XAU/USD(Gold)Short-Term Technical Forecast (H1 Timeframe)
Date: October 7, 2025
Trend Bias: Bullish (but currently consolidating near all-time highs)
Gold remains in a strong uptrend after breaking above 3920–3940 zone. The market is now forming a short-term pullback from the 3965–3970 region. As long as price holds above 3920 support, the bullish structure remains valid.
Technical Outlook Summary
| Direction | Condition | Bias | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish Scenario | If price holds above 3920–3930 support | Buy | Targeting 3980 → 4000 |
| Bearish Scenario | If price breaks below 3915 (H1 close) | Sell | Targeting 3880 → 3840 |
Suggested Trade Plan (Short-Term)
| Trade Type | Entry Level | Take Profit (TP) | Stop Loss (SL) | Risk/Reward | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy Setup | 3925 – 3935 | TP1 → 3960 TP2 → 3985 TP3 → 4000 | 3908 | 1:2.5+ | Buy near support zone after confirmation candle |
| Sell Setup | Below 3915 (H1 candle close) | TP1 → 3880 TP2 → 3840 | 3935 | 1:2 | Short only if trendline or support breaks |
Support & Resistance Levels (H1 Chart)
| Level Type | Price Zone (USD) | Importance | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 4000 – 4015 | Strong | Next major resistance, potential profit-taking zone |
| Resistance 2 | 3965 – 3980 | Medium | Local top / short-term rejection area |
| Resistance 1 | 3935 – 3945 | Immediate | Intraday resistance / possible retest level |
| Support 1 | 3920 – 3930 | Key short-term support | Watch for bounce or reversal candles |
| Support 2 | 3880 – 3890 | Medium | Retest zone from previous breakout |
| Support 3 | 3840 – 3860 | Strong | Trend continuation base / reversal area |
Profit Target Table (Projection Based on Bullish Continuation)
| Target Stage | Expected Move | Target Zone | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| TP1 | +30 to +35 pips | 3960 | Short-term intraday gain |
| TP2 | +50 to +60 pips | 3985 | Continuation of bullish impulse |
| TP3 | +70 to +90 pips | 4000 – 4010 | Extended target / all-time high breakout zone |
Summary
- Gold remains bullish above 3920 support.
- Intraday range: 3920 – 3980
- Breakout confirmation: Above 3965 → next upside 4000+.
- If 3915 breaks, expect a short-term correction toward 3880–3840.
FAQs
- Will gold definitely reach $4,000?
Not guaranteed. A breakout is needed above $3,950; if it fails, gold could pull back first. - What if gold corrects?
Key support zones at $3,872, $3,820, and deeper at $3,753 could be tested. - What is driving this rally?
Fed rate cut expectations, safe-haven flows, the U.S. shutdown, and central bank demand. - Is the market overbought?
RSI near 67 suggests the market is strongly bullish but may be nearing a temporary top. - Could the USD or yields spoil the rally?
Yes. A stronger USD or rising U.S. Treasury yields are among the main risks. - Should I buy now or wait?
A safer entry might be after confirmation above $3,950 or on a dip toward support zones.
Disclaimer: This article is for education and information only, not financial advice. Trading involves risk always do your own research.
